KOSOVO - A BALKAN TINDERBOX?

The Balkan and South European region is experiencing this time, a political earthquake, triggered by the unilateral declaration of independence by the Albanian dominated Kosovo region of Serbia.

Resolution 1244 of the UN Security Council which had managed to achieve a delicate balance between Serbian and Kosovar Albanian demands lies in tatters. So does the authority of the UN Security Council, paralyzed by discord between Russia on one side, and the US and its supporters on the other. In this dangerous vacuum, some of the more adventurous EU states, such as the UK are poised to enter. The Kosovo situation challenges established international law and principles, encourages separatist movements, creates instability, and challenges the integrity of many countries all over the world.

For if Kosovo has the right to secede from Serbia, and be recognized internationally, defying the UN Security Council, what of the Serbian enclave in Kosovo itself, and that in Bosnia-Herzegovina? Northern Cyprus (TRNC) could well claim to be independent, plunging the region into a dangerously tense state. What of the Basque region of Spain, of Chechnya, of Karabakh and all the turbulent regions of the Caucasus? Further afield, there are separatist movements that could draw inspiration and encouragement from Kosovo, in China, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Iraq, many African states, and even Puerto Rico in the US. The list could go on and on.

The Kosovar UDI has an immediate impact on the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM, whose attempt to seek the name of Republic of Macedonia is disputed by Greece), which has a large Albanian population, and whose sense of national identity and unity is fragile, riven by numerous fault lines.

It is no use arguing as some do, that Kosovo is a unique case, without precedent. The UNSC has been bypassed in order to accommodate Kosovar Albanian sentiments, at the expense of Serbia, an example of irresponsible and self-serving realpolitik at the expense of principles.

It is significant the very EU states closest to the region have urged caution and have blocked a consensus EU decision to recognize Kosovo, post UDI. These are Greece, Cyprus, and also Spain. After all it is they who will face the music. Faced with a problem on its doorstep, the EU has been unable to agree on a common position, and has left it to each member state to decide on extending recognition to Kosovo. The more aggressive EU states, led by the UK are gambling that the Serbian moderates who gained a lead in the recent elections will be able to come to terms with the so-called new realities, while Russia would then climb down from its strongly hostile position. Significantly, the US was the first to extend recognition to the new Kosovar state, followed quickly by countries such as UK, France, Germany, Italy, Albania, Latvia, Estonia, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Australia, Peru, Costa Rica, Senegal, and Islamic states such as Afghanistan, Malaysia, and Turkey.

Northern Cyprus has strongly supported the Kosovo state, as has Taiwan, raising the spectre of rising tensions over the Cyprus issue and Taiwan. A senior Palestinian figure said Palestine might consider declaring independence if talks with Israel fail. India has rightly taken a cautious position, taking note of the developments, which need careful assessment, but stressing that “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be fully respected by all states. We have believed that the Kosovo issue should have been resolved through peaceful means and through consultation and dialogue between the concerned parties.”

The people of the Balkan region have been the victim of ethnic and religious conflicts and the ebb and flow of conquering armies over many centuries. Nature and history have been cruel to them. The collapse of Yugoslavia led to the separation of its constituent Republics into independent countries. The latest, Montenegro, separated with the full agreement of Serbia, and did not pose a challenge to the international legal framework. Kosovo is different – a separation of a part of a sovereign member state of the UN in violation of the UN Security Council resolution.

One cannot help but regret that Kosovar Albanians did not explore the full scope of autonomy granted to them under the UN Security Council Resolution, earning for themselves the goodwill of the international community and Russia, and focus on building a better future for themselves. Instead, by following the lead of nationalist hotheads, they have gained a Pyrrhic victory, stirred up a hornet’s nest, and brought upon themselves and the region a host of thorny problems. They will in turn have to deal with separatist demands from the Serbian dominated area of Northern Kosovo. The EU states that have encouraged this adventure will have to be prepared to pay a heavy price in terms of peacekeeping burden and economic support to an isolated Kosovo and a serious setback to stability in South Eastern Europe and integration of the Balkans into the EU.

South Asian peoples would do well to draw lessons from this latest chapter in the Balkan saga. The key lesson is that efforts to draw state boundaries along ethnic or religious lines creates bitterness and new problems and temptations to resort to “ethnic cleansing” or its various disguised variants. Authoritarian regimes cannot weld together diverse peoples and superficial national unity can disintegrate once the lid of the authoritarian pressure cooker is removed. The latest situation in Pakistan whose national unity is under stress is another example. Pluralistic democracies based on real equality for all citizens are the only way to live peacefully and harmoniously. It is a pity that the EU, given its own internal efforts to achieve a pan-EU identity, has, in this latest situation has failed to heed this.


New Delhi,
28 February 2008